Delhi Elections are on 7th February 2015 and the results would be out in 3 days time. Till then most TV channels are crying hoarse about the opinion polls which give a clear lead to the AAP. All are stumbling over each other to write the obituary of BJP and well the ascent of AAP and Arvind Kejriwal. But is this the situation which is going to unfold on the 10th of February when the votes are counted. Are the people of Delhi going to vote for a newbie at the hustings? Are we going to see Arvind Kejriwal on the CM’s throne again? Well, there might just be a small slip between the cup and the lip. Lets take a brief look back.
In 2003, the opinion polls had suggested the following scenario (have taken CVoter opinion poll)
BJP: 39 / Congress: 30. The actual situation turned out to be BJP:20/Congress: 47. A yawning gap between the actual and the projected. Ms. Sheila Dikshit took the accolades in 2003. Come 2008 and it was an encore. The projection was BJP: 36-42/Congress: 28-34. The actual on-ground situation turned out to be BJP: 23/Congress:43. Once again a yawning gap between the projection and the actual. If the 2003 and 2008 opinion polls are some kind of an aberration then lets focus on the 2013 opinion polls. Am adding a small excel file to prove my point
The actual numbers are BJP: 31/Congress: 8/AAP: 28.
Now if we look at each of the above opinion polls, we can see that none of the polls got the numbers correct. In-fact none got the trends correct too barring a bit of CSDS which projected that Congress and AAP might get the same number of seats. None projected the decimation of Congress and the meteoric ascent of AAP. If we look at the above results with a fine-toothed comb then we can see that the opinion polls got one number somewhere close to the actual. i.e. Cvoter for BJP, Cicero for AAP (somewhat), ORG for BJP, CSDS for AAP, Nielsen for BJP and Cfore for BJP. This being a triangular contest, it does make sense that if the opinion polls get correct for one then it is bound to go haywire for the other two which is not in the case of a duo-polistic contest.
If one were to read a bit deeper in to this then I guess the people of Delhi are bit different. They choose to put the opinion pollsters off guard and necessarily and with impunity lie about the party they are going to vote for. With what reason they do that, it is difficult to understand but then the idea of people in Delhi being ‘thugs’ (Dilli ka thug) lends itself quite well to this behaviour. Why the hell should I tell this lame joker about the party I owe my allegiance to? Is there anything in return for this? Why bother telling the truth – let me just lie?
When the real votes get counted on 10th, it is a good chance that BJP might come out tops. AAP will be second definitely and surely Congress will have to look with a microscope to find – not only the number of seats it brings back home but the vote percentage it will poll in these elections.
Lets see what the ‘trickster’ of Dilli has in store for everybody.